Soccer Betting is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly soccer betting forecasts.
The statistical methods described in this set of articles should help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.
In this article we will be describing the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to eliminate those matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to choose your 8 from 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the original Footyforecast website (now 1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the Simple Sequence method which is described in another of our articles in this series.
Here are the basic rules…
For each team work out the following, 1. Work out the total number of points obtained for the last N games. 2. Work out the maximum number of possible points for the last N games. 3. Divide the total number of points obtained by the maximum available and multiply by 100. 4. Calculate the forecast value. In (1) and (2) above N games could be all the home games for the home side and all the away games for the away side. Alternatively N could be the last N games including all home and away games for a team. The forecast value is calculated like this…
HOMEPOINTS = number of points for home team from last N games
AWAYPOINTS = number of points for away team from last N games
HOMEVAL = (HOMEPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100
AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100
FORECAST = (HOMEVAL + (100 – AWAYVAL)) / 2
To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method the value is compared with the following… 1. A forecast value of 50 = a draw. 2. A value between 50 and 100 gives an increasing chance of a home win the closer to 100. 3. A value between 50 and 0 gives an increasing chance of an away win the closer to 0. There are a few variables to consider, for example the number of matches to use and whether to use all matches or just home for home side and just away for away side to name but two. You may wish to experiment with these values. By plotting actual resulting draws against the forecast it is possible to generate two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any values in-between these thresholds are likely draws. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean any matches falling between 41 and 59 may be draws. What this method does, with careful tuning by the user is to eliminate many matches which will not be draws giving you a short list to choose from. This method is best used where an English Pools Plan is to be used.
Here is a worked example…
The values shown are the points gained by the team for each game in a sequence of four recent matches, you of course could choose more games to base your calculations on. West Ham H4 = 3 (oldest match) H3 = 1 H2 = 1 H1 = 0 (most recent match) Leeds Utd A4 = 1 (oldest match) A3 = 3 A2 = 0 A1 = 3 (most recent match) Using only home games for home side and only away games for away side… FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42 FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59 FFPForcast = (42 + (100 – 59)) / 2 = 42 If our threshold values are 40 and 60 then for this match the prediction lies in the expected draw region and at the lower end meaning that if it is not a draw the most likely other outcome would be an away win. This may be interpreted as an X2 prediction, i.e. draw or away win, which some bookies will accept as a bet.
Now it’s your turn…
Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. You may also choose to use all home and away games played by each team in your calculations instead of just home games for the home team and away games for the away team. You may choose to have different thresholds than those shown above. You may also find it beneficial to plot actual results against the Footyforecast method predictions to see how many actual draws fall in the away win, draw, and home win prediction zones.
If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Footyforecast method to your data. Or, if you’re lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. 1X2Monster and Footyforecast have been providing this kind of facility since 1999. A total of seven different statistical methods are used to determine the outcome of each game played in each league, and a comprehensive record of how each method in each game performed is kept. Apart from how each tip performed within its respective league 1X2Monster also provides the league tables of how each league has performed in successfully predicting outcomes of games. The league tables of prediction performance are produced for home win predictions, draw predictions, away win predictions, and for overall predictions and are invaluable tools to the soccer punter when deciding where to target their European soccer betting predictions.
Here is a list of all the articles in this series…
Soccer Betting – How To Make A Profit Soccer Betting – The Rateform Method Soccer Betting – The Footyforecast Method Soccer Betting – The Win Draw Loss Method Soccer Betting – The Simple Sequence Method Soccer Betting – The Score Prediction Method Soccer Betting – The Superiority Method